Bulletins

Notes from the laboratory.

Short papers on the practice of structuring and deciding: what our models show, where methods disagree, what a case taught us. Numbered, dated, and kept. No news, no commentary, no marketing.

Bulletin I · MMXXVI

On the disagreement between methods

When every model is pointed at the same case, they rarely return the same order. Most treat this as a defect to be hidden behind a single number. We treat it as the measurement itself: the spread between methods is the honest width of the uncertainty, and a leader is entitled to see it.

Bulletin II · MMXXVI

How far can a verdict be pushed before it flips

Robustness is not a feeling about a result, it is a distance. We measure the smallest perturbation of the weights that reverses the ranking, and we publish it with the conclusion. A conclusion that flips under a rounding error is not a conclusion, it is a coin toss with extra steps.

Bulletin III · MMXXVI

What the losing option needed to win

The counterfactual is the most useful page of any arbitration file, and the least often written. It tells the winner why it won, the loser what was missing, and the judge that the choice was examined rather than assumed.

Bulletins are published when there is something to say, not on a schedule.